Examples

Examples of QL Factors You Can Measure Using the JudgmentsEngine™

The JudgmentsEngine™ enables you to quantify and communicate your judgments about critical QL issues, such as geopolitics, religious conflicts, terrorism, central banking, behavioral finance and disruptive technologies. Thought leaders address these issues in books – but not in models because they have never had a tool like the JudgmentsEngine™ to model the rich language they use to communicate their thoughts. Examples are Nassim Taleb’s “The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable” and Robert Shiller in “Animal Spirits” How Human Psychology Drives The Global Economy And What It Means For Global Capitalism”.

Swans + Animal Spirits

TST Global Macro Examples

China Animal Spirits: Confident or Polarized? Soft or Hard Landing Scenario?

Due to its huge population and the number of people moving into the middle and upper classes in terms of wealth, China has a tremendous impact on global asset prices and investing. However, due to the massive changes in its economy and social fabric, it is also unpredictable with the possibility of it suddenly going into positive and negative extremes. You can prepare for any eventuality by modeling its future in terms of its political, social, economic and financial issues and its impact on the other large countries under multiple scenarios.

The photos below illustrate the potential differences in the Animal Spirits in China and two well-known scenarios: China Soft Landing and China Hard Landing. The look of confidence of Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and his wife, Peng Liyuan, a renowned contemporary folk singer and performing artist, symbolizes the newfound confidence of a rising China. By contrast, the photo of the recent buyers of real estate units protesting because the developer reduced the prices of similar units shortly after their purchases illustrates the potential negative animal spirits from what Jim Chanos has called the “Mother of All Bubbles”. Chanos has forecasted a major decline in the Chinese economy due to the ultimate collapse of real estate prices caused by the vast overbuilding in China.

Xi Jingping + Wife

China Protesters

TST Global Macro Elements

See Ghost Cities in TST Global Macro

TST Oil Prices Examples

You can model the religious issues that Karen Armstrong has written about in “A History of God: The 4,000-Year Quest of Judaism, Christianity and Islam”. These religious and sectarian issues are driving the conflicts in the Middle East that have great impact on other factors, such as geopolitics, oil prices, and international trade.

3873

TST Oil Prices Elements

TST Energy

TST Equities Examples

Management Comparison

You can model management issues, such as the change in leadership at Apple from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook. You could have (1) modeled an educated guess whether Tim Cook would be a success or failure at the time he became CEO, (2) ranked his management ability relative to other CEOs, such as Steve Ballmer of Microsoft and Jeff Inmelt of GE, and (3) updated your rankings in real time whenever you acquired new nformation or simply changed your mind.

Steve Jobs + Tim Cook

TST Equities Elements - Preston
TST Equities

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