TST China Systems

A Visual Collaboration System for China Professionals

In 2009, TST China Modeled “The Man Who Got China Right”

Joseph Nocera about Jim Chanos – NY Times August 25, 2015

The above article by Joseph Nocera credits Jim Chanos and his team at Kynikos for forecasting the current problems in China 6 years ago.  We became familiar with Chanos’ thesis that China was “the mother of all bubbles” and developed the multi-scenario system below that embeds Chanos’ Hard Landing Scenario as well as Soft Landing and Middle Landing Scenarios.  This enables investors to update their judgments for all scenarios in virtual real time, see the results INSTANTLY, and toggle among the scenarios and to make decisions based upon where in the spectrum they believe China is or will be at any point in time.

A screenshot of the differences between the Soft Landing and Hard Landing Scenarios is below.  You can see at a glance that China is number 2 under the Soft Landing Scenario (behind Brazil) but last in the Hard Landing Scenario.  You can more details about the models in this page and other pages on this site as well as our TST Global Macro site.


Due to our experience in real estate development and analysis and our research on the amazing “ghost cities” / “empty cities”, such as Ordos in Inner Mongolia, we came to believe that Chanos was probably right.  We thus co-developed a powerful, multi-scenario system with the head of global macro/asset allocation for a premier buy-side firm that enabled his team to model multiple scenarios about the Chinese economy and the relative risk/reward of investing in the BRICs, EU, Japan and the US. We did 3 scenarios: (1) Soft Landing based on positions by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley/Yale, (2) Middle Landing (between Soft & Hard), and (3) Hard Landing based on Chanos’ position.

Chanos quote from Joseph Nocera article:

“I’ll never forget the day in 2009 when my real estate guy was giving me a presentation and he said that China had 5.6 billion square meters of real estate under development, half residential and half commercial,” Chanos told me the other day.

“I said, ‘You must mean 5.6 billion square feet.’ ”

The man replied that he hadn’t misspoken; it really was 5.6 billion square meters, which amounted to over 60 billion square feet.

For Chanos, that is when the light bulb went on. The fast-growing Chinese economy was being sustained not just by its export prowess, but by a property bubble propelled by mountains of debt, and encouraged by the government as part of an infrastructure spending strategy designed to keep the economy humming. (According to the McKinsey Global Institute, China’s debt load today is an unfathomable $28 trillion.)

      TST China Quantifies & Visualizes Ideas of Thought LeadersPaulsonAndXiJinping

TST China Systems uses the frameworks and insights of thought leaders like Henry Kissinger, Henry Paulson, George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, that often exist solely in textual format, to identify, organize and model the key drivers of China’s future.  The system transforms their mental models and thoughts into taxonomies and drivers databases and then enables other China professionals to quantify, visualize and synthesize them in TST models; the models then provide the analytical and communications foundation for multi-media accessories and derivatives, including research reports, PPT presentations, charts, indices and histories. TST’s unique multi-media combination enables users to generate analyses that are shorter, more comprehensive and easier-to-understand; the benefit is a potentially exponential increase in collaborative productivity among the professionals on your team.

On China”

On China

On China provides invaluable insights about China based on its 4,000+ year history. The book focuses on the historical development of China, starting with Confucius and evolving through the dynasties to Mao and the Cultural Revolution to the reform and opening up of Deng Xiaopeng, and then to today’s China.

Dealing With China”


Paulson’s book is full of anecdotes about his experiences with the leaders of China, particularly relative to their attitudes to and relations with the United States. It is an action-oriented book with numerous recommendations about how China and the US can develop a win/win relationship through systematic dialogue.

Managing the Qualitative Factors that Drive China

TST China Systems meet the needs of professionals to make better decisions about China by systematically – yet intuitively and dynamically – managing the qualitative factors that drive those decisions. These factors include government policies and regulations, US/China relations, pollution and climate change, social cohesion, animal spirits, military power, capital markets reform, real estate and A Shares prices, and the true economic value of its assets and liabilities.

You can use our Dynamic Drivers System  to (1) organize, quantify, sythesize and visualize the QL factors you believe drive China under multiple scenarios at any point in time and (2) update your judgments dynamically in virtual real time as conditions change. For example, you can evaluate and forecast the relative risk/reward of investing in China relative to the other major economies (other BRICs, EU, Japan and the US), or in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, under multiple scenarios using a set of judgments logically consistent for each scenario.

Multiple Models in One System

The versatility of the modeling tools in TST China Systems enables you to create virtually any type of structure using any type of language. The two examples below serve very different purposes. The Dynamic Drivers Model is a single tier model designed for simplicity and speed. The Multi-Tier Model is a multi-tier model designed for far more detailed analysis than the Dynamic Drivers Model.

In their book, Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Nobel Prize winners, George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, argue that human psychology drives the global economy and the financial markets; economists must use methodologies from the social sciences, including psychology, sociology, political science and anthropology, to understand this psychology; and economists have tended to de-emphasize the importance of emotional factors because they are difficult to model and quantify.  THINKSheet provides economists and other professionals with tools that enable them to quantify and model the Animal Spirits of China and other large economies in rich language that will lead them to properly factor them into their financial models.

The two examples that follow show how you can use TST China Systems to evaluate and forecast China’s Animal Spirits under Best and Worst Case Scenarios.  The Best Case Scenario generates an answer that the Animal Spirits of China are Confident.  The primary reasons are that the Chinese are Exuberant  and Highly Confident about prices for the A Shares and their real estate investments with probabilities of Virtually Assured and Highly Probable, respectively.


TST Qualitative Model Benefits

The collaborative benefits of the TST QL models include organization, transparency, efficiency and improved decision processes, which together increase the probability of greater accuracy.


TST qualitative models do not guarantee accurate results because the accuracy

of the results is totally dependent upon the collective accuracy of the judgments. 

The presentation is in a tabular format that enables teams to make the judgments one at a time within an organized framework conducive for comparing the drivers’ positive and negative impacts on the overall level of confidence; the logic is transparent because the drivers are communicated in rich language and synthesized on one dynamic page; the process is efficient because the team can cross-examine their assumptions one at a time and see the results INSTANTLY; the process is dynamic because the team can react to new conditions in virtual real time as conditions change; the models improve the team’s thought processes because the senior decision-makers master the process of determining what the key drivers are and how to weight, quantify, synthesize and visualize them and the junior professionals learn the best thought processes faster because they see them in a synthesized format that numerical models and research reports cannot match. These benefits combine to optimize the exchange of ideas among team members and thus increase the probability the results will be correct.

 The Qualitative Comparison Test: Word vs TST-Enhanced Excel

The comparison test for our TST QL models is the traditional methods, processes and tools for analyzing QL factors in a collaborative environment.  They are:

  1. in head analysis
  2. back of the envelope analysis
  3. verbal discussions
  4. research reports
  5. models that use numbers only for the judgments
  6. any combination of the above.

The criteria for comparison is collaborative productivity in terms of language richness and brevity, logic, visualization, precision, transparency, dynamism and synthesis.  The common method of analysis for major decisions involving complex judgments is research reports using Microsoft Word as the tool.  The disadvantage of research reports relative to TST Models is that they are not precise, visual and dynamic; they synthesize the analysis but take far more pages to do so. Most TST models use Microsoft Excel plus our proprietary QL algorithms add-ons; they include the rich language and logic of research reports but are also are precise, visual and dynamic.

However, the use of Microsoft Word & TST Excel-enhanced models is not an either/or choice.  The tools are best used together; the TST Models provide the synthesis in one or more dynamic pages and then the research reports provide supplemental detail and logic.  The TST Models are then incorporated into the research reports which are shorter, more comprehensive and easier to understand.

The Worst Case Scenario.

THINKSheet generates Pessimistic for the Worst Case Scenario.  The difference is primarily due to the change in assumptions for the A Shares and Real Estate Prices to Pessimistic and Depressed, respectively.  The stock market and real estate prices are linked for tens of millions of people in the China’s middle class.  They are depressed about their real estate values because a greater share of their net worth is tied to real estate than to the stock markets.


CAVEAT: These two views are the simplest of multiple views of the model.  Other views include definitions, criteria, notes and  categories that provide details of the drivers and the reasoning.  The system adds extensive documentation, such as white papers, best practices, research, user manuals and model histories that facilitate users maximizing the value of the models.

The best practice is often to use the Best and Worst Case Scenarios as outer boundaries with a Base Case Scenario in between.  The simplicify of the Animal Spirits model enables you to update all 3 scenarios in virtual real time as conditions change.  You can also compare them on 1PAGERs like the Soft and Hard Landing Scenarios for the more comprehensive models in TST China Animal Spirits – Synergy.

Synthesizing the QL+QT Drivers

You can quantify all of your most important QL judgments and then synthesize them with traditional QT data, such as GDP growth, per capital income, export and import data, the yuan/dollar exchange rate, manufacturing data, in one seamless set of TST models.  The TST models are one component of a comprehensive system that includes an organizational framework and a set of software tools that help you streamline your entire information management and decision processes.

Problem & Solution: The Complexity, Interconnections & Dynamism of China

The problem is that the political, social, economic and financial elements that drive China are complex, interconnected & dynamic and the ability of numerical systems to model them is limited by their inability to quantify the rich language China professionals use to collaborate when making decisions. TST China solves the problem by providing a unique language-enriched system for managing the drivers, interconnections and rapidly-changing conditions of today’s China.

 Everything Is Connected and Everything Changes

Kissinger On “The Art Of War “

In his book “On China”, Henry Kissinger writes that the principles laid down by Sun Tzu in “The Art Of War” 2,500 years ago are timeless when it comes to analysis & decision-making.TheArtOfWar

“Perhaps Sun Tzu’s most important insight was that in a military or strategic contest, everything is relevant and connected: weather, terrain, diplomacy, the reports of spies and double agents, supplies & logistics, the balance of forces, historic perceptions, the intangibles of suprise and morale. Each factor influences the other, givng rise to subtle shifts in momentum and relevant advantage. There are no isolated events.”

Note: TST China Systems enables experts to prioritize the most important connections – not every detail.  Sun Tzu would have been able to use TST China Systems to better identify the most important connections, communicate them to his colleagues and collaborate with them on developing the best war strategies and tactics.

TST China Systems: Methodology, Data & Toolset

The components of TST China Systems are China-specific customizations of our general purpose system components: best-thought-process methodology, data provided by third parties, including Bloomberg and FactSet, and a set of analytical and communications tools, including models, databases, research reports, histories & indices, and multi-media presentations.  See THINKSheet General Purpose Platform for description of the individual components.

TST System Components

Best-Thought-Process Methodology

The best-thought-process methodology is our proprietary software quantification of the case method taught in business, law and medical school in the US.  The case method is also the standard method of decision-making for business and management in China as a result of Henry Paulson’s response to Zhu Rongi’s request for guidance on how to educate the next generation of Chinese managers about best practices.  See the chapter School for Success in Paulson’s book Dealing With China.

1 PAGER™ Synthesis, Fixed & Dynamic Drivers, and Filtering System

How does TST China Systems help you manage the complexity, connections and rapid change of today’s China?  It helps you structure the synthesis of the most important elements of your decision processes in a way no other toolset can, enabling your team to collaborate on the logic and answers in the most effective way.  TST China’s signature output is the 1PAGER™ – a visual synthesis of the most important elements of your decision processes on one dynamic page.  To maximize the probability that you will model the right drivers, TST China provides a Drivers Management System for 2 sets of driver categories – fixed and dynamic – and a powerful filtering system that helps you incorporate the right drivers into the 1PAGERs™.

 Fixed & Dynamic Drivers make the 1 PAGERs™ Possible

The 1PAGERs are – by definition – limited to one page. This creates a spatial problem because the number of columns in most TST models is far more limited than numerical models because non-numerical language takes up more column width than numbers. The TST solution for our Multi-Tier Model below is to combine 2 sets of categories of drivers, fixed and dynamic, in five columns on one page.  The fixed driver categories are (1) political & social and (2) economic and financial; these provide a checklist of the permanent categories that drive China. The dynamic driver categories are (3) catalysts, (4) risks (3), and (5) headlines and x factors. These categories are dynamic, enabling you to respond instantly to rapidly-changing conditions.

Note: The Synthesis  page summarizes the metrics, scaling methods and reasoning in the models below.


The Multi-Tier Model Framework

The table below illustrates Tiers 1 and 2 of the framework and the 2 sets of driver categories for the Multi-Tier Model.

Fixed and Dynamic Drivers Structure

Fixed Drivers

The Fixed Drivers categories are permanent, but the drivers within those categories are dynamic. They are modeled in sub-models whose results link up to the 1PAGER that synthesizes them into the two Fixed Drivers categories on the synthesis page: (1) Political & Social and (2) Economic and Financial.

Govt Stability

For example, in the government stability category, the Xi Jinping administration has radically changed the CCP’s approach to corruption, imprisoning high profile party member such as Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the Standing Commiittee of the Politburo.  This changed the historical immunity of the highest level CCP members to corruption charges.


For example, in the government stability category, the Xi Jinping administration has radically changed the CCP’s approach to corruption, imprisoning high profile party member such as Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the Standing Commiittee of the Politburo. This changed the historical immunity of the highest level CCP members to corruption charges.

True Asset Values & Liabilities

In the True Asset Values & Liabilities category, the China A shares have gone from 5,116 to 3,400 in a week and then back to 3,900 in 3 days.  The true value of the A Shares is difficult to determine because the government has implemented a set of stimuli unprecedented for any stock market, including lower interest rates, looser margin standards, allowing investors to use their homes as collateral, suspension of over 40% of the companies shares, and prohibitions on sales by insiders.

Dynamic Drivers

The Dynamic Drivers categories are designed for flexibility, speed and visualization.  The model structure limits the Tier 1 categories to 5 columns so they can fit on one page. The (1) Political & Social category and (2) Economic and Financial category fill the first two columns and the Dynamic Drivers the next 3 columns.

Catalysts & X Factors

Catalysts, Headlines and X Factors are defined generally.  Catalysts are events, such as news, new policies and alliances, that trigger a change in expectations about China. X-Factors are events, qualities and traits of China not covered in the other categories and are critical to analyzing China. Headlines are news that the news media consider important that change people’s expectations about China.


You select the 3 sub-risks you believe are the most serious at any moment in time. 3 sets of examples are: Credit Spreads, Terrorism and Grexit; Inflation, Global Monetary Policy and Real Estate Values; and US/China Relations, Hong Kong Protests, and CCP Conflicts. ChinaRisks

To fit the 3 sub-risks in one small column width, we use a letter abbreviation for each sub-risk. For example, C for Credit Bubble; G for Grexit: and H for Hong Kong Protests. There are 8 choices including: All for all 3 sub-risks; C for Credit Bubble only; G&H for Grexit and Hong Kong Protests: and None for none of the sub-risks.  They scale from Best (None) to Worst (All) based upon the number of risks and their level of seriousness.

Drivers Filtering System

TST China Systems combines the TST models with a powerful filtering system for culling and modeling the drivers of China at any point in time. The filtering system is organized based on a multi-level taxonomy with four categories in Tier 1: political, social, economic and financial.

These categories are based on the 4 cornerstones of country analysis in David Darst’s book: “The Art of Asset Allocation: Principles and Strategies for Any Market” – the bible of asset allocation.

David Darst’s book is considered the bible of asset allocation.



The Drivers Management System uses the taxonomy to filter the drivers from the Drivers Research Center into the Drivers Database and then into the Dynamic Drivers Model.  The system insures that everyone on your team is collaborating in the most organized and efficient way; it provides a checklist that decreases the likelihood you will miss a category and the most important drivers in that category; it insures that you see both the most important drivers in your models and detailed descriptions and analysis of those drivers in the Drivers Database and the Drivers Research System; and it increases the odds that you will always be focused on what’s most important in the TST models.


Modeling the Perspectives and Agendas of Interest Groups

A powerful use of TST China Systems is to model the perspectives and agendas of the interest groups that most impact decision-making in China.  Even though the Communist Party has virtually complete control of China, it is heavily influenced by domestic and external interest groups with conflicting agendas. The domestic interest groups include provincial governors, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), real estate developers, and the 1.3 billion population; the external interest groups include the governments of the US, Europe, Russia, Japan, and Iran, global capital markets, foreign direct investors (FDIs) and consumers of Chinese goods. Forecasting the future policies of the Chinese leadership requires a sophisticated analysis of these interest groups.  Our China Interest Group Analytics enable you to model the relative influence of the key interest groups with respect to any set of policies, such as five-year plans, interest rates, trade policies, regulations and geopolitics.  The organizational framework for the interest groups is illustrated below, with the internal groups highlighted in red and the external groups in white.

Interest Groups for China


Quantifying & Visualizing the Strategic Economic Dialogue

One potential use of TST China Systems is to quantify and visualize the issues and interest groups included in the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED).  The SED is a semi-annual conference of Chinese & US leaders, created by former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, in 2006, to enhance the relations between the two superpowers.  As a former Treasury Secretary, head of investment banking and CEO of Goldman Sachs, and a staff assistant in the Nixon White House, Paulson understood the importance of interest groups.  He viewed China’s emergence as a global power not as a threat for the US to counter or contain but as an opportunity for the U.S. economy.  He believes the U.S. should manage the relationship with China through systematic engagement and dialogue.  He wrote in an essay published in Foreign Afffairs in 2008:    A Strategic Economic Engagement – Strengthening U.S.-Chinese TIes

Systematic Dialogue

“The result was the SED, which is led at the vice-premier level in China and by the lead economic cabinet secretary on the U.S. side, and there is cabinet-level representation from all ministries with responsibilities for economic issues. Discussions cover a variety of strategic issues, of both immediate and long-term concern.

By focusing on policy areas in which China’s reform agenda intersects with U.S. interests, the SED has found new and constructive ways to discuss some of the most important and contentious matters in the U.S.-Chinese economic relationship, including growth imbalances, energy security and environmental sustainability, trade and investment issues, and China’s position in the global economic system.”

Understanding Chinese Perspective

“U.S. officials are more effective when they understand the Chinese people’s perspective. Establishing relationships at the top of the Chinese government has been key to the U.S. government’s success with the SED.

One of the reason relationship building is so important is that government decisions in China are often made by consensus and after much consultation. Reform progresses best when an umbrella of support at the top facilitates change at lower levels. Officially, the most important decisions are made by President Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao, but unofficially, decisions are increasingly made through a consensus-oriented process involving powerful government ministries. The SED’s high-level, cross-agency approach recognizes this reality and brings key decision-makers to the table to build broad support for reform.”

A Collaborative System for the SED

THINKSheet is the ultimate collaboration system because of its ability to quantify, visualize and synthesize thought processes in the language of the users.  It would have special value for the SED because it would enable countries with different languages, cultures and goals, to see and better understand each other’s perspectives as well as the feasible and best ways to reconcile them. TST China Systems could frame the issues, quantify and visualize their impact and probability, display their potential reconciliation on one dynamic page, and lay the foundation for their implementation and the evaluation of their success.

Site Organization

This TST China Systems web site includes the following sections organized based upon the framework above:

  • Scenarios
  • Political
  • Social
  • Economic
  • Financial
  • Dynamic
  • Synthesis.

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