Dynamic

Dynamic Analysis

TST China Systems is a uniquely dynamic system. The language versatility of TST models enables you to respond to major QL events and factors far more accurately, transparently and efficiently than using numerical models or research reports or any combination of the two.  Examples are a 9/11-like event, the volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A Shares and the government’s attempt to manage it, the Greece bailout, the shifting relations among the US, Russia and China, and the fallout from the Iran nuclear agreement.

Dynamic Framework: Multi-Tier Model

The Dynamic Drivers Categories enable you to  react instantly to rapidly-changing conditions by updating your models with maximum efficiency and then synthesizing them on your 1PAGERs. Your team can then play “what if” at high speed until satisfied that the results are correct and everyone understands the logic behind them.  Examples of these versatile categories are catalysts, risks (3 sub-risks), and headlines and x factors on the right side of the overall model framework.

ChinaMultiTierFramework

Updating the Multi-Tier Model Judgments

To update the model described in detail in the Synthesis page, you:

  1. change all judgments for selected scenarios
  2. see your thought process and results
  3. play “what if” until satisfied reasoning and results are correct
  4. make the decision taking all scenarios into account.

ChinaDynamicDriversComparison

Updating the Multi-Tier Model Framework

You can easily change the model framework. You:

  1. change weights for 3 metrics for any or all scenarios
  2. change 3 sub-risks for selected scenarios
  3. change all judgments for selected scenarios
  4. see your thought process and results
  5. play “what if” until satisfied your new framework works the way you want
  6. play “what if” until satisfied reasoning and results are correct
  7. make the decision taking all scenarios into account.

The key to generating the right answer is to make the driver categories, the weights and the judgments for each scenario logically consistent.

Updating the Dynamic Drivers Model

You can easily change the Dynamic Drivers Model.  You input new:

  1. Drivers, Weights and Impact & Probability Judgments
  2. See your thought process and the results
  3. Play “what if” until satisfied your reasoning and results are correct.

ChinaAnimalSpiritsFramework2

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