China Real Estate Research

Updated as of Sept. 30, 2015

Current Driver in Dynamic Drivers Model

Key Drivers of Real Estate Values for Next 12 Months

We are focused on the following drivers of China real estate values over the next 12 months:

1. fill up speed of new cities
2. fill up speed of Yujaipu
3. transportation infrastructure for new cities
4. govt force govt agencies, SOEs, universities, etc. to move into new cities
5. govt policies re development, ownership & financing.

We are basing our conclusions, in part, on the following assumptions:

1. most of the “ghost cities” should be referred to as “new cities”
2. a small number of cities may remain ghost cities
3. Yujaipu is a bellweather development
4. population growth starts once transporation infrastructure is in place
5. fill up speed should start once transportation infrastructure is in place
6. govt will force govt agencies, SOEs, universities, etc. to move into new cities.

You can see the details of our analysis in the 74 page analysis below:

China Real Estate Research